A generalized Fellner-Schall method for smoothing parameter estimation with application to Tweedie location, scale and shape models

We consider the estimation of smoothing parameters and variance components in models with a regular log likelihood subject to quadratic penalization of the model coefficients, via a generalization of the method of Fellner (1986) and Schall (1991). In particular: (i) we generalize the original method to the case of penalties that are linear in several smoothing parameters, thereby covering the important cases of tensor product and adaptive smoothers; (ii) we show why the method's steps increase the restricted marginal likelihood of the model, that it tends to converge faster than the EM algorithm, or obvious accelerations of this, and investigate its relation to Newton optimization; (iii) we generalize the method to any Fisher regular likelihood. The method represents a considerable simplification over existing methods of estimating smoothing parameters in the context of regular likelihoods, without sacrificing generality: for example, it is only necessary to compute with the same first and second derivatives of the log-likelihood required for coefficient estimation, and not with the third or fourth order derivatives required by alternative approaches. Examples are provided which would have been impossible or impractical with pre-existing Fellner-Schall methods, along with an example of a Tweedie location, scale and shape model which would be a challenge for alternative methods

Competitor phenology as a social cue in breeding site selection

Predicting habitat quality is a major challenge for animals selecting a breeding patch, because it affects reproductive success. Breeding site selection may be based on previous experience, or on social information from the density and success of competitors with an earlier phenology. Variation in animal breeding phenology is often correlated with variation in habitat quality. Generally, animals breed earlier in high-quality habitats that allow them to reach a nutritional threshold required for breeding earlier or avoid nest predation. In addition, habitat quality may affect phenological overlap between species and thereby interspecific competition. Therefore, we hypothesized that competitor breeding phenology can be used as social cue by settling migrants to locate high-quality breeding sites. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally advanced and delayed hatching phenology of two resident tit species on the level of study plots and studied male and female settlement patterns of migratory pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. The manipulations were assigned at random in two consecutive years, and treatments were swapped between years in sites that were used in both years. In both years, males settled in equal numbers across treatments, but later arriving females avoided pairing with males in delayed phenology plots. Moreover, male pairing probability declined strongly with arrival date on the breeding grounds. Our results demonstrate that competitor phenology may be used to assess habitat quality by settling migrants, but we cannot pinpoint the exact mechanism (e.g. resource quality, predation pressure or competition) that has given rise to this pattern. In addition, we show that opposing selection pressures for arrival timing may give rise to different social information availabilities between sexes. We discuss our findings in the context of climate warming, social information use and the evolution of protandry in migratory animals

Parasite infections in a social carnivore: Evidence of their fitness consequences and factors modulating infection load

There are substantial individual differences in parasite composition and infection load in wildlife populations. Few studies have investigated the factors shaping this heterogeneity in large wild mammals or the impact of parasite infections on Darwinian fitness, particularly in juveniles. A host's parasite composition and infection load can be shaped by factors that determine contact with infective parasite stages and those that determine the host's resistance to infection, such as abiotic and social environmental factors, and age. Host–parasite interactions and synergies between coinfecting parasites may also be important. We test predictions derived from these different processes to investigate factors shaping infection loads (fecal egg/oocyte load) of two energetically costly gastrointestinal parasites: the hookworm Ancylostoma and the intracellular Cystoisospora, in juvenile spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) in the Serengeti National Park, in Tanzania. We also assess whether parasite infections curtail survival to adulthood and longevity. Ancylostoma and Cystoisospora infection loads declined as the number of adult clan members increased, a result consistent with an encounter‐reduction effect whereby adults reduced encounters between juveniles and infective larvae, but were not affected by the number of juveniles in a clan. Infection loads decreased with age, possibly because active immune responses to infection improved with age. Differences in parasite load between clans possibly indicate variation in abiotic environmental factors between clan den sites. The survival of juveniles (<365 days old) to adulthood decreased with Ancylostoma load, increased with age, and was modulated by maternal social status. High‐ranking individuals with low Ancylostoma loads had a higher survivorship during the first 4 years of life than high‐ranking individuals with high Ancylostoma loads. These findings suggest that high infection loads with energetically costly parasites such as hookworms during early life can have negative fitness consequences

Even obligate symbioses show signs of ecological contingency: Impacts of symbiosis for an invasive stinkbug are mediated by host plant context

Many species interactions are dependent on environmental context, yet the benefits of obligate, mutualistic microbial symbioses to their hosts are typically assumed to be universal across environments. We directly tested this assumption, focusing on the symbiosis between the sap‐feeding insect Megacopta cribraria and its primary bacterial symbiont Candidatus Ishikawaella capsulata. We assessed host development time, survival, and body size in the presence and absence of the symbiont on two alternative host plants and in the insects\u27 new invasive range. We found that association with the symbiont was critical for host survival to adulthood when reared on either host plant, with few individuals surviving in the absence of symbiosis. Developmental differences between hosts with and without microbial symbionts, however, were mediated by the host plants on which the insects were reared. Our results support the hypothesis that benefits associated with this host–microbe interaction are environmentally contingent, though given that few individuals survive to adulthood without their symbionts, this may have minimal impact on ecological dynamics and current evolutionary trajectories of these partners

Social learning within and across predator species reduces attacks on novel aposematic prey

To make adaptive foraging decisions, predators need to gather information about the profitability of prey. As well as learning from prey encounters, recent studies show that predators can learn about prey defences by observing the negative foraging experiences of conspecifics. However, predator communities are complex. While observing heterospecifics may increase learning opportunities, we know little about how social information use varies across predator species. Social transmission of avoidance among predators also has potential consequences for defended prey. Conspicuous aposematic prey are assumed to be an easy target for naive predators, but this cost may be reduced if multiple predators learn by observing single predation events. Heterospecific information use by predators might further benefit aposematic prey, but this remains untested. Here we test conspecific and heterospecific information use across a predator community with wild-caught blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major). We used video playback to manipulate social information about novel aposematic prey and then compared birds' foraging choices in 'a small-scale novel world' that contained novel palatable and aposematic prey items. We expected that blue tits would be less likely to use social information compared to great tits. However, we found that both blue tits and great tits consumed fewer aposematic prey after observing a negative foraging experience of a demonstrator. In fact, this effect was stronger in blue tits compared to great tits. Interestingly, blue tits also learned more efficiently from watching conspecifics, whereas great tits learned similarly regardless of the demonstrator species. Together, our results indicate that social transmission about novel aposematic prey occurs in multiple predator species and across species boundaries. This supports the idea that social interactions among predators can reduce attacks on aposematic prey and therefore influence selection for prey defences.Peer reviewe

Interplay between topography, fog and vegetation in the central South Arabian mountains revealed using a novel Landsat fog detection technique

In the central South Arabian mountains of Yemen and Oman, monsoon fog interception by the endemic cloud forest is essential for ecosystem functions and services. Yet, we know little about the local factors affecting fog distributions and their cumulative effects on vegetation. To examine these relationships, we developed a novel method of high-resolution fog detection using Landsat data, and validated the results using occurrence records of eight moisture-sensitive plant species. Regression tree analysis was then used to examine the topographic factors influencing fog distributions and the topoclimatic factors influencing satellite-derived vegetation greenness. We find that topography affects fog distributions. Specifically, steep windward slopes obstruct the inland movement of fog, resulting in heterogenous fog densities and hotspots of fog interception. We find that fog distributions explain patterns of vegetation greenness, and overall, that greenness increases with fog density. The layer of fog density describes patterns of vegetation greenness more accurately than topographic variables alone, and thus, we propose that regional vegetation patterns more closely follow a fog gradient, than an altitudinal gradient as previously supposed. The layer of fog density will enable an improved understanding of how species and communities, many of which are endemic, range-restricted, and in decline, respond to local variability in topoclimatic conditions

Brachytherapy of Choroidal Melanomas Less Than 10 mm in Largest Basal Diameter Comparison of 10-mm and 15-mm Ruthenium Plaques

Purpose: To compare tumor control, vision, and complications between patients with a choroidal melanoma of Design: Retrospective, comparative case series. Participants: One hundred sixty-four consecutive patients with a choroidal melanoma of Methods: Diagnosis was based on growth or high-risk characteristics. The apical dose was 100 to 120 Gy aiming to deliver >= 250 Gy to the sclera. Plaque positioning was modeled retrospectively. An increase of >= 0.3 mm in thickness and >= 0.5 mm in LBD indicated local recurrence. Outcomes were compared with cumulative incidence analysis and Cox regression. Median follow-up time for patients still alive was 8.4 years. Main Outcome Measures: Recurrence rate, low vision, blindness, radiation maculopathy, and optic neuropathy. Results: Melanomas treated with the 10-mm plaque were smaller (median thickness, 1.9 mm vs. 2.6 mm; LBD, 7.1 mm vs. 8.6 mm) and located closer to foveola (median, 2.0 mm vs. 2.8 mm) than those treated with the 15-mm plaque (P <0.001). The 2 plaques provided a safety margin in 43% versus 40% eyes, provided no safety margin to guard foveola in 17% versus 33%, and did not entirely cover tumor mainly close to the disc in 32% versus 18% of eyes, respectively (P = 0.052). The incidence of a local recurrence was comparable (13% vs. 15% at 10 years; P = 0.31) and associated with plaque positioning (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81 for no safety margin; P = 0.041). At 5 years, the incidence of low vision was 14% versus 24%, and that of blindness was 3% versus 6%. Distance to the foveola was associated with loss of both levels of vision (HR, 0.65 per 1 mm vs. 0.68 per 1 mm; P Conclusions: The 10-mm ruthenium plaque contributes to better visual preservation, particularly with tumors close to fovea, without increase in local recurrence rate, and may therefore be preferable to the 15-mm plaque. (C) 2020 by the American Academy of OphthalmologyPeer reviewe

Life history alterations upon oral and hemocoelic bacterial exposure in the butterfly Melitaea cinxia

Life history strategies often shape biological interactions by specifying the parameters for possible encounters, such as the timing, frequency, or way of exposure to parasites. Consequentially, alterations in life-history strategies are closely intertwined with such interaction processes. Understanding the connection between life-history alterations and host-parasite interactions can therefore be important to unveil potential links between adaptation to environmental change and changes in interaction processes. Here, we studied how two different host-parasite interaction processes, oral and hemocoelic exposure to bacteria, affect various life histories of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia. We either fed or injected adult butterflies with the bacterium Micrococcus luteus and observed for differences in immune defenses, reproductive life histories, and longevity, compared to control exposures. Our results indicate differences in how female butterflies adapt to the two exposure types. Orally infected females showed a reduction in clutch size and an earlier onset of reproduction, whereas a reduction in egg weight was observed for hemocoelically exposed females. Both exposure types also led to shorter intervals between clutches and a reduced life span. These results indicate a relationship between host-parasite interactions and changes in life-history strategies. This relationship could cast restrictions on the ability to adapt to new environments and consequentially influence the population dynamics of a species in changing environmental conditions.Peer reviewe